Thursday, June 30, 2011

Transformers 3 vs Larry Crowne

This July 4th weekend, Transformers battles Tom Hanks and Julia Roberts in Larry Crowne, while also taking on some animated Cars.

Transformers: Dark of the Moon
Hit Factor: It pretty much has the July 4th weekend to itself... Hyping up to be the coolest 3D movie since Avatar... but is it?
Flop Factor: Almost everyone is still pissed at Michael Bay for Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen.



Larry Crowne
Hit Factor: Tom Hanks and Julia Roberts
Flop Factor: Story doesn't really look that enticing... and may fall way under the radar with all these giant blockbuster movies around.



Monte Carlo
Hit Factor: Teen girls probably aren't into Transformers.
Flop Factor: If Larry Crowne falls under the radar, then this will fall way under that.



My Predictions:

Movie
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
Cars 2
Larry Crowne
Bad Teacher
Green Lantern
Weekend Gross (millions)
$85
$38
$24
$18
$9



Sunday, June 26, 2011

Car 2 Finishes in First Place

Pixar's Cars 2 raced into first place with just under $70 million this weekend. This makes the 12th Pixar movie in a row (since 1995's Toy Story) to finish in first at the box office. However, Cars 2 does have it's troubles, as it is the lowest critically acclaimed movie for Pixar, currently getting 33% on rottentomatoes... So we'll just have to see how strong it's legs will be throughout the rest of the Summer.

As for the other movie that debuted this weekend, Cameron Diaz's foul mouthed comedy, Bad Teacher, it managed to rake in about $31 million, much higher than anticipated.

Meanwhile, Green Lantern has dropped about 65% from last weekend to under $20 million, which does not bode well as the current reported budget stands at $200 million.

Weekend Estimates
MovieWeekend GrossTotal GrossBudget
1) Cars 2
2) Bad Teacher
3) Green Lantern
4) Super 8
5) Mr. Popper's Penguins
6) X-Men: First Class
7) The Hangover Part 2
8) Bridesmaids
9) Pirates of the Caribbean 4
10) Midnight in Paris
$68 million
$31 million
$18.4 million
$12.1 million
$10.3 million
$6.6 million
$5.9 million
$5.4 million
$4.7 million
$4.5 million
$68 million
$31 million
$89.3 million
$95.2 million
$39.4 million
$132.8 million
$243.9 million
$146.7 million
$229.1 million
$28.6 million
$200 million
$19 million
$200 million
$50 million
$55 million
$160 million
$80 million
$32.5 million
$250 million
$30 million

Thursday, June 23, 2011

Cars 2 vs Bad Teacher

Pixar's latest sequel hits the big screen against a raunchy Cameron Diaz comedy.

Cars 2
Hit Factor: Disney/Pixar combo = lots of money.
Flop Factor: This may be the lowest rated Pixar movie (currently 39% on Rottentomatoes). Which may finally show signs that Pixar (or Disney) is fresh out of ideas. But this doesn't matter because Disney will make $Billions in merchandising and other memorabilia.



Bad Teacher
Hit Factor: Different target audience than Cars 2.
Flop Factor: I feel like this need good to great reviews to survive it's hype, and so far reviews are mediocre at best.



My Predictions:

Movie
Cars 2
Bad Teacher
Green Lantern
Super 8
Mr. Popper's Penguins
Weekend Gross (millions)
$70
$24
$23
$14
$10



Sunday, June 19, 2011

Green Lantern Needs A Brighter Bulb

Green Lantern, the latest superhero commodity to hit theaters debuted with a nice $53 million, but still behind recent other superhero movies, including X-Men: First Class ($55.1 million) and Thor ($65.7 million). Also, the rumored $150 million plus budget (it may actually be closer to $200 million) doesn't bode well for Green Lantern. A strong overseas performance will most likely recoup that.

As for Jim Carrey's Mr. Popper's Penguins, it made a decent $18.2 million for a third place finish behind Super 8.

Weekend Estimates
MovieWeekend GrossTotal GrossBudget
1) Green Lantern
2) Super 8
3) Mr. Popper's Penguins
4) X-Men: First Class
5) The Hangover Part 2
6) Kung Fu Panda 2
7) Bridesmaids
8) Pirates of the Caribbean 4
9) Midnight in Paris
10) Judy Moody
$52.7 million
$21.3 million
$18.2 million
$11.5 million
$9.6 million
$8.7 million
$7.5 million
$6.2 million
$5.2 million
$2.2 million
$52.7 million
$72.8 million
$18.2 million
$119.9 million
$232.7 million
$143.3 million
$136.8 million
$220.3 million
$21.8 million
$11.2 million
$150 million
$50 million
$57 million
$160 million
$80 million
$150 million
$32.5 million
$250 million
$30 million
$20 million

Thursday, June 16, 2011

Green Lantern vs Jim Carrey

Two new movies open in wide release this weekend ready to battle Super 8.

Green Lantern
Hit Factor: Warner Bros. is throwing a lot of money at this to make it look good.
Flop Factor: Not sure if anyone outside of nerdy comic book fans will see this... reviews have been less than stellar so far.



Mr. Popper's Penguins
Hit Factor: Based on a children's book.
Flop Factor: Oh Jim Carrey, what are you doing?



My Predictions:

Movie
Green Lantern
Super 8
Mr Popper's Penguins
X-Men: First Class
Kung Fu Panda 2
Weekend Gross (millions)
$45
$28
$20
$14
$10



Sunday, June 12, 2011

Super 8 Takes the Top of the Box Office


The J.J. Abrams/Steven Spielberg pet project, Super 8, managed to out gross the naysayers with a strong $38 million opening weekend. Yes, it isn't huge like other movie fare out there, but in a Summer full of sequels and superhero meltdown, this is pretty good... even for film without a built in audience and no major stars (and it also only cost about $50 million). But thanks to names like director J.J. Abrams and Steven Spielberg on board and a positive word of mouth, Super 8 may have strong legs during the rest of Summer.


Weekend Estimates
MovieWeekend GrossTotal GrossBudget
1) Super 8
2) X-Men: First Class
3) The Hangover Part 2
4) Kung Fu Panda 2
5) Pirates of the Caribbean 4
6) Bridesmaids
7) Judy Moody
8) Midnight in Paris
9) Thor
10) Fast Five
$37 million
$25 million
$18.5 million
$16.6 million
$10.8 million
$10.2 million
$6.3 million
$6.1 million
$2.4 million
$1.7 million
$38 million
$98.9 million
$216.6 million
$126.9 million
$208.7 million
$123.9 million
$6.3 million
$14.2 million
$173.6 million
$205.1 million
$50 million
$160 million
$80 million
$150 million
$250 million
$32.5 million
$20 million
$30 million
$150 million
$125 million

Thursday, June 9, 2011

Super 8 vs X-Men: First Class

Super 8 and a few other movie hit the box office this weekend, vying to take the top spot from X-Men: First Class.

Super 8
Hit Factor: Awesome trailer... J.J. Abrams and Steven Spielberg = Gold.
Flop Factor: Hype has dropped in the past few days.



Judy Moody and the Not Bummer Summer
Hit Factor: Based off a kids book.
Flop Factor: I'm too old for this film.



Midnight in Paris

Hit Factor: Doing well in limited release.
Flop Factor: The general public doesn't really watch Woody Allen movies.



My Predictions:

Movie
Super 8
X-Men: First Class
The Hangover Part 2
Kung Fu Panda 2
Bridesmaids
Weekend Gross (millions)
$40
$30
$15
$14
$9

Sunday, June 5, 2011

X-Men: First Class Finishes in First

Despite opening in the top spot this weekend, the 5th in the franchise, X-Men: First Class' $56 million fell short of the last three X-Men openings (X-Men Origins: Wolverine: $85.1; X-Men: The Last Stand:$102.8 million; X2: X-Men United: $85.6 million). Probably due to franchise burn out, comparably to how Pirates 4 is doing in the States(amongst the rest of the series). To X-Men First Class' credit, it is sort of a reboot of the franchise and it is getting good reviews, much better than Wolverine and The Last Stand, and definitely better than Pirates of the Caribbean 4.

Anyways we'll see if good word of mouth can provide some legs during this heavy Summer line-up.

And as for legs (or no legs), The Hangover 2 dropped over 60% from its record weekend as the hype is starting to fade. Also, somewhat surprisingly, is Kung Fu Panda 2's 50% drop from last weekend, proving that even good reviewed movies may not have strong legs this Summer.

Weekend Estimates
MovieWeekend GrossTotal GrossBudget
1) X-Men: First Class
2) The Hangover Part 2
3) Kung Fu Panda 2
4) Pirates of the Caribbean 4
5) Bridesmaids
6) Thor
7) Fast Five
8) Midnight in Paris
9) Jumping the Broom
10) Something Borrowed
$56 million
$32.4 million
$24.3 million
$18 million
$12.1 million
$4.2 million
$3.2 million
$2.9 million
$.9 million
$.8 million
$56 million
$186.9 million
$100.4 million
$190 million
$107.2 million
$169 million
$202.1 million
$6.9 million
$35.9 million
$36.6 million
$160 million
$80 million
$150 million
$250 million
$32.5 million
$150 million
$125 million
$30 million
$6.6 million
$35 million

Thursday, June 2, 2011

X-Men: First Class vs The Hangover 2

One movie opens in wide release this weekend as it tries to fend off against a second Hangover, and another Panda that knows Kung Fu.

X-Men: First Class

Hit Factor: X-Men movies do well... 98%, so far, on Rottentomatoes(that's pretty damn good for any movie)...
Flop Factor: No Wolverine... The Hugh Jackman character was a huge selling point for the X-Men franchise.



My Predictions:

Movie
X-Men: First Class
The Hangover Part 2
Kung Fu Panda 2
Pirates of the Caribbean 4
Bridesmaids
Weekend Gross (millions)
$65
$42
$35
$18
$12