Thursday, September 29, 2011

50/50 vs Dream House vs What's Your Number?

A few new movies open this weekend... looking to dethrone The Lion King 3D (I'm guessing they're still keeping it in theaters, right?).

50/50

Hit Factor: Good reviews (currently 88% on rottentomatoes). Undoubtedly seems like a good movie.
Flop Factor: This Dramedy looks more like an indie film with big stars in it, than a big Hollywood flick.



Dream House
Hit Factor: The trailer looks surprisingly good. Director Jim Sheridan, directed My Left Foot and In the Name of the Father.
Flop Factor: Seems way out of the director's style to do this film. No early reviews, meaning Dream House wasn't properly screened for critics... so er maybe terrible. Wait, upon scanning wikipedia this was posted:
Daniel Craig, Rachel Weisz and director Jim Sheridan (Who had the film taken away from him by Morgan Creek Productions to implement their own cuts and changes) disliked the final cut of the film so much that they refused to do press promotion or interviews for it. --- That sucks.



What's Your Number?
Hit Factor: Anna Faris is likeable.
Flop Factor: Keep forgetting the title to her movie.


My Predictions:

Movie
The Lion King (3D)
50/50
Moneyball
Dolphin Tale
Dream House
Weekend Gross (millions)
$16
$12
$11
$11
$10



Sunday, September 25, 2011

The Lion King Remains King of the Box Office

The Lion King 3D held on to the Box Office throne for the second weekend in a row with about $22 million, defending off newcomers, Moneyball ($20.6 million), Dolphin Tale ($20.3 million), Abduction ($11.2 million) and Killer Elite ($9.5 million)... of which the later two are under-performing. Yes, Taylor Lautner's Abduction and the Jason Statham, Clive Owen, and Robert De Niro action vehicle, Killer Elite, are both getting poor reviews from critics. In fact, Abduction is only getting a 3% on rottentomatoes... ouch!!! But can relinquish in the fact that it's budget is around $35 million... and the damage wont be so bad... Killer Elite on the other hand, well, with a $70 million budget that might be a Killer problem.


Weekend Estimates
MovieWeekend GrossTotal GrossBudget
1) The Lion King 3D
2) Moneyball
3) Dolphin Tale
4) Abduction
5) Killer Elite
6) Contagion
7) Drive
8) The Help
9) Straw Dogs
10) I Don't Know How She Does It
$22.1 million
$20.6 million
$20.3 million
$11.2 million
$9.5 million
$8.6 million
$5.8 million
$4.4 million
$2.1 million
$2.1 million
$61.7 million
$20.6 million
$20.3 million
$11.2 million
$9.5 million
$57.1 million
$21.4 million
$154.4 million
$8.9 million
$8 million
n/a
$50 million
$37 million
$35 million
$70 million
$60 million
$25 million
$25 million
$25 million
$24 million

Thursday, September 22, 2011

Moneyball vs Abduction vs The Lion King 3D

A slew of films open this weekend looking to take the thrown away from The Lion King 3D.

Moneyball
Hit Factor: Brad Pitt, with Aaron Sorkin and Steve Zaillian involved. A currenty 92% rating on rottentomatoes helps too.
Flop Factor: For some reason it has a Social Network feel, but not as enticing.



Abduction
Hit Factor: Girls love Taylor Lautner
Flop Factor: He looks out of place just from the trailer... getting negative early reviews.



Killer Elite

Hit Factor: Jason Statham, Clive Owen and Robert De Niro.
Flop Factor: Marketing for this film has been pretty weak, I didn't even know it was coming out this weekend till I made this post.



Dolphin Tale
Hit Factor: Early positive reviews.
Flop Factor: Despite positive reviews does really cater to someone like me.


My Predictions:

Movie
The Lion King (3D)
Moneyball
Dolphin Tale
Abduction
Killer Elite
Weekend Gross (millions)
$18
$18
$15
$10
$10



Sunday, September 18, 2011

The Lion King 3D Easily Dominates A Boring Box Office

Yes, The Lion King's return to theaters in the third dimension took in almost $30 million this weekend, much higher than analysts predicted as no other movie could compete with it. Contagion (last weeks numero uno) only took a 35% dip this weekend for a $14 million plus, second place finish... While the Ryan Gosling vehicle, Drive, took in $11 million for third.

Meanwhile, the two other newcomers, Straw Dogs and I Don't Know How She Does It failed to find an audience, and looks like they will become minor flops.

Weekend Estimates
MovieWeekend GrossTotal GrossBudget
1) The Lion King
2) Contagion
3) Drive
4) The Help
5) Straw Dogs
6) I Don't Know How She Does It
7) The Debt
8) Warrior
9) Rise of the Planet of the Apes
10) Colombiana
$29.3 million
$14.5million
$11 million
$6.4 million
$5 million
$4.5 million
$2.9 million
$2.8 million
$2.6 million
$2.3 million
$29.3 million
$44.2 million
$11 million
$147.3 million
$5 million
$4.5 million
$26.5 million
$9.9 million
$171.6 million
$33.3 million
n/a
$60 million
$13 million
$25 million
$25 million
$24 million
$20 million
$25 million
$93 million
$40 million

Thursday, September 15, 2011

Lion King 3D vs Drive vs Contagion

Yup a bunch of movies hits theaters this weekend... and one classic movie returns with a useless 3D conversion.

The Lion King 3D
Hit Factor: Great Film... and the fact there is nothing else out there. Plus Disney already made it's money back when this film was first released.
Flop Factor: Is Disney going to rerelease all their classics in 3D?



Drive
Hit Factor: One of the highest scores of the year (currently 95% on rottentomatoes)
Flop Factor: Marketing has been very limited for this film.



Straw Dogs
Hit Factor: Had some early buzz.
Flop Factor: That was months ago, now there is no buzz.



I Don't Know How She Does It
Hit Factor: No other movie with that target audience.
Flop Factor: Movie looks pretty bad.



My Predictions:

Movie
The Lion King (3D)
Contagion
Drive
The Help
I Don't Know How She Does It
Weekend Gross (millions)
$15
$13
$12
$7
$7



Sunday, September 11, 2011

Contagion Tops Box Office

Contagion easily topped the weak Box Office weekend, albeit a little under expectations. The killer virus movie made an estimated $23 million, leaving The Help in the dust for second place at $8.7 million. Warrior, despite it's very positive reviews only garnered $5.6 million. So overall, the first weekend of September looked like a pretty boring one.

Oh, the two other movies that came out this weekend, Bucky Larson and Creature, pretty much bombed even though they are extremely low budget flicks... not one of them making the top 10 on this low Box Office weekend.


Weekend Estimates
MovieWeekend GrossTotal GrossBudget
1) Contagion
2) The Help
3) Warrior
4) The Debt
5) Colombiana
6) Rise of the Planet of the Apes
7) Shark Night 3D
8) Apollo 18
9) Our Idiot Brother
10) Spy Kids 4
$23.1 million
$8.7 million
$5.6 million
$4.9 million
$4 million
$3.9 million
$3.5 million
$2.9 million
$2.8 million
$2.5 million
$23.1million
$137.1 million
$5.6 million
$22 million
$29.8 million
$167.8 million
$14.8 million
$15 million
$21.4 million
$34.2 million
$60 million
$25 million
$25 million
$20 million
$40 million
$93 million
$25 million
$5 million
$5 million
$27 million

Thursday, September 8, 2011

Contagion vs Warrior vs The Help

Will The Help's reign finally end as Contagion and a slew of other movies enter theaters?

Contagion
Hit Factor: There is seriously nothing else out.
Flop Factor: An end of the world, deadly virus movie isn't exactly fresh material.



Warrior
Hit Factor: It's like The Fighter, but for mixed martial arts.
Flop Factor: Looks like The Fighter, but for mixed martial arts.



Bucky Larson: Born to be A Pornstar
Hit Factor: Backed by Happy Madison
Flop Factor: Umm yeah.



Creature
Hit Factor: It's being released in more than 1500 theaters
Flop Factor: I've never heard of this film.



My Predictions:

Movie
Contagion
The Help
Warrior
The Debt
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Weekend Gross (millions)
$33
$10
$10
$6
$5



Monday, September 5, 2011

The Help Remains at the Top Again

For a third weekend in a row, The Help easily remained at the top of the box office as newcomers, The Debt, Apollo 18 and Shark Night 3D took second, third and fourth, respectively. (I am running out of pictures of The Help to use.)

It was a pretty boring weekend, as has been the case over the last few weekends. Late Summer, is the stomping ground for random mediocre movies that no one really wants to see. The Help is an exception, and it is gaining all the headlines as it keeps the number one spot with a very low $14.6 million (actually up from last weekend). Overall most movies saw a smidgen of a decline from last weekend... probably due to the low numbers at the box office over the past few weeks.

Weekend Estimates
MovieWeekend GrossTotal GrossBudget
1) The Help
2) The Debt
3) Apollo 18
4) Shark Night 3D
5) Rise of the Planet of the Apes
6) Colombiana
7) Our Idiot Brother
8) Don't Be Afraid of the Dark
9) Spy Kids 4
10) The Smurfs
$14.6 million
$9.9 million
$8.7 million
$8.4 million
$7.9 million
$7.5 million
$5.5 million
$5.1 million
$4.8 million
$4.1 million
$119 million
$11.8 million
$8.7 million
$8.44 million
$160 million
$22 million
$15.7 million
$16.6 million
$29.2 million
$132.1 million
$25 million
$n/a
$5 million
$28 million
$93 million
$40 million
$5 million
$25 million
$27 million
$110 million

Thursday, September 1, 2011

Apollo 18 vs Shark Night vs The Debt

Late August early September is a favorite dumping ground for movies that I don't want to see. So, will any of these new films take The Help from the top spot?

Apollo 18
Hit Factor: Very low budget flick.
Flop Factor: It looks pretty bad.



The Debt
Hit Factor: The only serious movie being released this weekend.
Flop Factor: Marketing for this film is pretty forgettable.



Shark Night 3D
Hit Factor: A killer shark movie in "3D!"
Flop Factor: I don't know if people will pay for a B movie.


My Predictions:

Movie
Apollo 18
Shark Night 3D
The Help
The Debt
Colombiana
Weekend Gross (millions)
$16
$14
$10
$8
$5