Thursday, December 31, 2015

Can Star Wars Hold Onto Three Weekends in a Row as The Hateful Eight Debuts?

Star Wars: The Force Awakens looks to remain at the top of the box office as only one new movie hits theaters this New Years Eve 2015 weekend or New Years 2016 weekend (whatever is the right terminology).

The Hateful Eight
Hit Factor: Tarantino is a critics darling filmmaker that has never made movies to please critics.
Flop Factor: At almost 3 hours long (or longer depending if you watch it in 70mm) with intermission, it may deter the average moviegoer.



My Predictions:

Movie
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
The Hateful Eight
Daddy's Home
Joy
The Chipmunks: The Road Chip
Weekend Gross (millions)
$80
$28
$24
$11
$10




Sunday, December 27, 2015

Star Wars: The Force Awakens Sets Christmas Record

Star Wars: The Force Awakens easily held onto it's second weekend with a record breaking $153.5 million.... Yes, just to add more records to it's name, The Force Awakens has now:

Biggest Second weekend for a movie: $153.5 million (previously held by Jurassic World's $106 million)
Fastest movie to $1 Billion: 12 Days (Also previously held by Jurassic World... 13 days).
And a bunch of other records.

It's also safe to say that Avatar's $760.5 domestic total is in jeopardy, but it's worldwide take of $2.788 Billion is still somewhat safe.

In other movie news (there were other movies out this weekend) the Mark Wahlberg and Will Ferrel comedy Daddy's Home ($38.8 million) performed better than expected.  The Jennifer Lawrence vehicle directed by David O'Russell, Joy ($17.5 million), had a strong debut. Meanwhile, the Will Smith NFL drama Concussion ($11 million) underwhelmed. And... Point Break ($10.2 million), the remake with a reported $100 million budget, fell short. Speaking of short...The star studded, The Big Short, made a decent $10.5 million to movie a notch above Point Break... Wow, that was a handful.

Wait...

Quentin Tarantino's The Hateful Eight debuted in only 100 theaters and grossed $4.5 million, landing just outside the top 10.

Phew...


Weekend Estimates
MovieWeekend GrossTotal GrossBudget
1) Star Wars: The Force Awakens 
2) Daddy's Home
3) Joy
4) Sisters
5) The Chipmunks: The Road Chip 
6) Concussion
7) The Big Short
8) Point Break
9) HG: Mockingjay - Part 2
10) Creed
$153.5 million
$38.8 million
$17.5 million
$13.9 million
$12.7 million
$11 million
$10.5 million
$10.2 million
$5.3 million
$4.6 million
$544.6 million
$38.8 million
$17.5 million
$37.1 million
$39.4 million
$11 million
$16 million
$10.2 million
$264.6 million
$96.3 million
$200 million
$50 million
$60 million
$30 million
$90 million
$35 million
$28 million
$100 million
$160 million
$35 million


Thursday, December 24, 2015

Star Wars: The Force Awakens vs The Big Short vs Concussion vs Joy vs Daddy's Home vs Point Break

In other words, a slew of new movies hit theaters this crowded Christmas Weekend, all vying for that Star Wars pie.


The Big Short
Hit Factor: Awards season buzz, great cast.
Flop Factor: Might be too much of a economic drama than most people want for the Holidays.



Joy
Hit Factor: The same team that brought us American Hustle and Silver Linings Playbook.
Flop Factor: While reviews have been good, they aren't as good as those movies listed.



Concussion
Hit Factor: Will Smith has been getting a lot of buzz for his role in this film.
Flop Factor: Will Will Smith fans turn out for him in a serious role?



Daddy's Home
Hit Factor: Will Ferrell and Mark Walhberg's film The Other Guys was pretty funny.
Flop Factor: The director of that film went on to do The Big Short instead.



Point Break
Hit Factor: Cool Stunts
Flop Factor: Well, where to start, a seriously crowded box office, for one.


My Predictions:

Movie
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Daddy's Home
The Big Short
Joy
Concussion
Weekend Gross (millions)
$120
$18
$15
$15
$11





Sunday, December 20, 2015

Star Wars: The Force Awakens Sets Record $238 million Debut

The biggest movie of all time... be, will it?

Well, there's certainly no shortage of records being broken this weekend as Star Wars: The Force Awakens' $238 million debut easily topples the previous record, Jurassic World's $209 million. Though, since these are still estimates, the margin of error could be millions off, and the numbers could end up higher.

Overseas, The Force Awakens couldn't quite claim a record ($279 million)... behind Jurassic World ($316 million) and Harry Potter: Deathly Hallows Part 2 ($314 million).  But to be fair, it didn't debut in the all the same places as those films. Worldwide, The Force Awakens has already grossed $517 million.

Now back to the other records it has broken...
Here we go...
Biggest Thursday night preview night: $57 million
Biggest opening day and single day: $120.5 million
First film to cross $100 million in a single day.
Fastest film to $100 million and $200 million.
Biggest Imax opening: $30.1 million

Also, biggest opening in December, which was previously held by The Hobbit ($84.6 million). And, according to Holiday Season box office economics, could mean a healthy stay at for the next couple of weeks... with the potential to dethrone Avatar's $2.79 billion worldwide gross.

But who cares about that movie, when there were two other debuts this weekend: Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip ($14.4 million) and Sisters ($13.4 million).


Weekend Estimates
MovieWeekend GrossTotal GrossBudget
1) Star Wars: The Force Awakens 
2) Alvin and the Chipmunks 4
3) Sisters
4) HG: Mockingjay - Part 2
5) Creed
6) The Good Dinosaur
7) Krampus
8) In the Heart of the Sea
9) Dilwale
10) Bajirao Mastani
$238 million
$14.4 million
$13.4 million
$5.7 million
$5.1 million
$4.2 million
$3.8 million
$3.5 million
$1.9 million
$1.7 million
$238 million
$14.4 million
$13.4 million
$254.4 million
$87.9 million
$96.5 million
$34.8 million
$18 million
$1.9 million
$1.7 million
$200 million
$90 million
$30 million
$160 million
$35 million
$200 million
$15 million
$100 million
$15 million
n/a


Thursday, December 17, 2015

Star Wars: The Force Awakens To Crush Jurassic World's $209 Million Record Debut?

Probably...
Jurassic World also holds the record for worldwide debut ($526 million).

There are other films coming out this weekend, but let's face it, there's only one film everyone's gonna be talking about.

Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Hit Factor: Well...
Flop Factor: People will probably consider this a flop if it debuts under Jurassic World. The Holiday Season isn't known for setting weekend records, but movies released in this period have gone on to become the highest grossing movies of all time (ie: Avatar, Titanic).


Sisters
Hit Factor: Positive early reviews (80% Tomatometer).
Flop Factor: A certain other movie is probably taking up all the theater space.


Alvin and the Chipmunks: Road Chip
Hit Factor: Kids... enough to warrant a fourth film.
Flop Factor: Wow, they did four of these?


My Predictions:

Movie
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Sisters
Alvin and the Chipmunks 4
Creed
The Good Dinosaur
Weekend Gross (millions)
$225
$12
$10
$7
$6





Sunday, December 13, 2015

The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2 Holds on to Fourth Weekend in a Row

Newcomer In the Heart of the Sea, starring Chris Hemsworth and directed by Ron Howard, capsized at the box office this weekend ($11 million)... It's mediocre reviews (43% Tomatometer) and lack of awards buzz probably deterred most movie-goers.  The reported $100 million movie will definitely have a tough time recouping it's budget, especially when a certain franchise awakens next weekend.

So, that left The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2 to narrowly hold on to the top spot with $11.3 million. It, so far, has grossed $564.6 million worldwide.


Weekend Estimates
MovieWeekend GrossTotal GrossBudget
1) HG: Mockingjay - Part 2 
2) In the Heart of the Sea
3) The Good Dinosaur
4) Creed
5) Krampus
6) Spectre
7) The Night Before 
8) The Peanuts Movie
9) Spotlight
10) Brooklyn
$11.3 million
$11 million
$10.5 million
$10.1 million
$8 million
$4 million
$3.9 million
$2.7 million
$2.5 million
$2 million
$244.5 million
$11 million
$89.7 million
$79.3 million
$190.8 million
$32 million
$38.2 million
$125 million
$20 million
$14.3 million
$160 million
$100 million
$175 million
$35 million
$15 million
$245 million
$25 million
$99 million
$20 million
$10 million


Friday, December 11, 2015

In the Heart of the Sea vs The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2

Only one new move hit theaters before that one movie comes out next week.

In the Heart of the Sea
Hit Factor: Thor in Ron Howard film.
Flop Factor: Last movie they did together (Rush), although good, didn't do well at the box office.


My Predictions:

Movie
In the Heart of the Sea
HG: Mockingjay - Part 2
The Good Dinosaur
Krampus
Spectre
Weekend Gross (millions)
$14
$12
$10
$9
$3









Sunday, December 6, 2015

The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2 Takes Third Weekend in a Row

The final installment of The Hunger Games series: Mockingjay - Part 2 managed to three-peat for the top spot at the box office this weekend ($18.6 million).  It has grossed $227 domestically and $524 million worldwide, so far.

The only new movie in wide release, Krampus, unexpectedly managed a second place finish with $16 million.  It beat out Creed ($15.5 million) and The Good Dinosaur ($15.5 million) the later of which had an unheard of drop of 60% for Pixar.


Weekend Estimates
MovieWeekend GrossTotal GrossBudget
1) HG: Mockingjay - Part 2 
2) Krampus
3) Creed
4) The Good Dinosaur
5) Spectre
6) The Night Before
7) The Peanuts Movie 
8) Spotlight
9) Brooklyn
10) Secret in their Eyes 
$18.6 million
$16 million
$15.5 million
$15.5 million
$5.4 million
$4.9 million
$3.5 million
$2.9 million
$2.4 million
$2 million
$227.1 million
$16 million
$65.1 million
$76 million
$184.5 million
$32 million
$121 million
$16.6 million
$11.2 million
$17.2 million
$160 million
$15 million
$35 million
$175 million
$245 million
$25 million
$99 million
$20 million
$10 million
$19.5 million

Thursday, December 3, 2015

Krampus vs Mockingjay Part 2 vs The Good Dinosaur vs Creed



Only one new movie opens in wide release this post Thanksgiving weekend.

Krampus
Hit Factor: Looks entertaining... like that Rare Exports movie.
Flop Factor: Lack of much buzz might make for a quiet weekend.


My Predictions:

Movie
HG: Mockingjay Part 2
The Good Dinosaur
Creed
Krampus
Spectre
Weekend Gross (millions)
$30
$28
$25
$10
$9